The last few days of Parliament have not provided anyone with any certainty on Brexit. A key group of stakeholders of Brexit are the EU citizens in the UK and those intending to come here post-Brexit. So, what happens if there is no deal before 29 March 2019 and the UK crashes out of the EU?
A common misconception is that all EU nationals would become illegal on 30 March 2019 if there is no deal. This is incorrect.
The Government’s policy paper on Citizen rights’ for EU citizens in the UK and vice versa envisages such a scenario. However, whilst the policy paper makes clear that EU citizens who have been resident in the UK by 29 March 2019 will be able to remain here, this proposal is a significant clawback from the EU Settlement Scheme.
The EU Settlement Scheme, details of which were published last year, is ready for its first public test phase. However, the way this scheme will function is contingent on a ‘deal’ being agreed. If you have been following the proceedings in parliament, it is unlikely whether a deal, as it stands today, would be agreed.
In the event of a ‘no-deal’ situation, the government, as the policy paper suggests, will allow EU citizens to remain in the UK. This means that if you are a UK resident by 29 March 2019, you would be able to apply for ‘settled status’ or ‘pre-settled status’. The government says that if there is no deal the period to apply for this scheme would be by 31 December 2020. This would mean all EU nationals and their family members, including those who have Permanent Residence would need to apply under this scheme by this date.
This means that EU Citizens already here would have some assurance about their ability to remain in the UK.
The situation does differ if you are an EU citizen intending on migrating to the UK. If this is before 29 March 2019, then the same EU laws apply to you, which means you are free to enter the UK and remain here (if you are exercising treaty rights). If you arrive after 29 March, then the situation becomes complicated.
Whilst on 30 March 2019, if no deal is reached, the UK would have crashed out of the EU, EU-related law would continue to apply in the UK. The basis of this is the European Union (Withdrawal) Act 2018. This Act retains EU-derived UK legislation as good law. This means until the domestic EU-derived UK legislation, which includes the EEA Regulations 2016, remain in force, the rights of EU nationals to enter and remain in the UK remain the same. This does have a caveat which is that at any time, the UK could legislate to repeal all EU-derived UK legislation, including this one.
The information contained above is subject to change due to the ongoing political uncertainty in respect of UK-EU negotiations as to the UK’s Exit from the EU.